Newcastle vs. Liverpool. Preview.

Liverpool travel to Northeast England to take on Newcastle, the former breeding grounds of Andy Carroll and Jose Enrique. Liverpool won 3-1 earlier this year at Anfield with one of Liverpool’s more convincing performances.

It’s impossible to not ask questions about this Liverpool side currently. Signs would point towards a good display; as this is against a team at the top of the table, but also on the road. But anything can happen. Maybe we will be graced with the enlightening performance that was Wigan, or we could see the team that performed for 75′ against QPR (not the part we let in three goals).

Newcastle are sitting sixth in the table, one position ahead of Liverpool. Should be a good affair.

Who will start for Liverpool?

Reina
Kelly–Carragher–Skrtel–Enrique
Spearing–Gerrard
Kuyt–Downing
Suarez–Carroll

Lets be honest, this team changes so much, it’s impossible to pick who starts in midfield and in attack.

Reina will anchor the side at keeper. Skrtel and Enqirue will probably be in the line up. Depending on fitness at right back, Glen Johnson or Martin Kelly will get a start. If not, it could be Jon Flanagan or Jamie Carragher. It would be nice to see Coates in the line up though.

Spearing and Gerrard seem to have midfield locked down. There could be an inclusion of Jordan Henderson at the expense of either Dirk Kuyt or Carroll, especially on the road. With Charlie Adam out for the year, don’t be surprised to see more of Jonjo Shelvey.

Stewart Downing seems to be in favor to Kenny Dalglish after he has performed much better recently. Luis Suarez should be a lock also to start up front. The surprise lately has been a lack of Carroll. His insertion into the line up after the half is what sparked the little work Liverpool gave against Wigan. Kuyt might also hit the other flank, and him and Downing can easily switch sides depending on the circumstances.

How can Liverpool win?

Show a little desire. Finishing hasn’t become the biggest problem for Liverpool any. With three goals against QPR and almost two against Wigan, Liverpool are hitting the back of the net a little bit. The defense has been the underperformers. Skrtel is starting to have the long season affect him, which is bad for Liverpool with Daniel Agger still trying to fix that rib. Coates has looked really good while he has been in, and there really is no reason not to start him.

But the coach knows more than I do, and I will respect that with not calling for his head right now. Mostly because I’m calm and have little to worry about. If I’m staring at another Liverpool defeat, I may say something I could regret.

But until next time. YNWA.

What does Glen Johnson mean to Liverpool?

Glen Johnson is generally known for his offensive prowess, but he is highly disregarded when it comes to defense because of his knack for getting so far forward when Liverpool hold possession in the final third.

With this year being rough on Liverpool, especially in the final third, what does it mean for the defense that has generally been outstanding? Also, who really should start at right back? Should it be Glen Johnson, the player who seems to be a canon when sprinting off into the limelight of the opponents 18 yard box, or Martin Kelly who bossed Ryan Giggs around at Anfield in the FA Cup?

For the hell of it, I have compiled some statistics based on the teams performance with and without Glen Johnson in the line up.

Johnson has started 17 matches in the league this year for Liverpool. The first block of numbers is for Liverpool’s goals against this year in the league. Liverpool have allowed 31 goals this year, third in the league.

In Johnson’s 17 matches, Liverpool have allowed only 14 goals, which lies at .824 gpg against. In the 13 matches Johnson didn’t start, Liverpool allowed 17 goals. That means that Liverpool allow about a half a goal more when Johnson doesn’t play. This goes a long way to debunk the myth that Johnson can’t play defense.

The second block shows how many goals Liverpool has scored this year with Johnson in and out of the starting XI. This year, Liverpool have scored 36 goals in the league. Of those 36, Johnson has been in the squad for half of them in his 17 starts. The other 18 came when Flanagan, Carragher, Kelly or Skrtel were playing at right back.

Liverpool’s goals per game with Johnson is 1.059, and without, 1.385. This is almost .3 goals per game difference. Not as substantial as .5 goals per game against, but still a noticeable difference in the long run. The problem is, that Suarez’s suspension occurred during Johnson’s 17 straight league games which could have skewed the statistics.

These two numbers seem small, but over the course of a 38 game season it adds up. If we use the averages of goals against and for per game, then we can find out Liverpool’s ideal goal differential.

Over the course of a season, if Johnson’s goals per game and goals against per game stay consistent, we can expect to score approximately 40 goals and let in 31 for a goal difference of nine, this means Liverpool will score only four goals in the next eight games, which even I like to think is unlikely.

When Johnson isn’t in the line up, Liverpool would score approximately 52 goals over the season, but let in 49 for a goal differential of three. Liverpool have a lot of work to go to score that many goals, along with letting that many in.

These numbers aren’t perfect since they draw from a small sample size, but you can see that Liverpool should be better off if Johnson is in the line up.

When it comes down to the important things, it’s all down to points anyways, right?

Well here are the numbers. In the 13 matches Johnson hasn’t started, Liverpool have 17 points for 1.308 points per game. In the 17 matches Johnson has started, Liverpool have 25 points, or 1.471 points per game. These two numbers are almost too close to really say there is much of a difference, since they both draw from a small sample size. But over a season, Liverpool would earn approximately 50 points without Johnson and 56 with him. That would mean Liverpool need eight to 14 points respectively to equal the total set by my model.

In conclusion, Liverpool seem better off when they have Glen Johnson in the starting XI. They allow .5 goals per game less and almost .2 points per game more with him in the line up. It seems they sacrifice goals though, earning .3 goals per game less than they would if Johnson didn’t start. Over the span of a 38 games, it equals more substantial numbers. Liverpool would ideally end up with 56 points and a goal differential of nine with Johnson in the line up. Without Johnson, Liverpool would ideally earn 50 points and a goal difference of three goals.

If Liverpool continue on this pace they would end up in 6th (last years table) place with 56 points with Johnson (two fewer points than they ended with last year). Without Johnson, Liverpool would be sitting in 7th behind Everton (again, last years table).

Follow me on Twitter, @jdrzewicki9.

Liverpool 1-2 Wigan Athletic.

Yeah, so someone called the bad-luck fairy, the “we’re too tired” angel. What the hell happened against Wigan? I got the luxury of missing it. The only high points I got out of it was the goal by Suarez and the introduction of Raheem Sterling, the speed demon.

I’m a fan boy of Henderson, but he got taken out at the half for Carroll (who should have started) and was underperforming. I missed the match so I really don’t have much to say, and that is a good thing.

Ideally, I will be able to come up with a good post about Glen Johnson in the coming days.

Remember to follow me on Twitter. @jdrzewicki9 is me.

 

Liverpool vs. Wigan Athletic. Match Preview.

Wigan Athletic come to the confines of Anfield for what could turn out to be one of the most interesting matches of Liverpool’s year. Coming off a complete and utter collapse against Q.P.R., anything can happen for the inconsistent Liverpool. What is there to expect from Liverpool? If only I could tell you, I really don’t think anyone will know until kickoff.

The Liverpool we have seen at times has been brilliant, and at many other times, very poor. The Q.P.R. match was a good indicator of how the season is going. The first half showed Liverpool’s failings in front of the net, then we saw a good bit of Liverpool on the road, then we even got the pleasure of seeing blown points against a relegation battling team. Good lord.

Onto tomorrow though.

Who will start for Liverpool?

Reina
Kelly–Carragher–Skrtel–Enrique
Spearing
Henderson–Gerrard–Downing
Carroll–Suarez

It’s really impossible to predict who is going to play for Liverpool. I can guarantee Reina and probably Suarez. The rest are up in the air. Is Kelly fit? If so, I bet he starts despite Flanagan sitting on the bench. Carragher has played a bit recently, o well, Coates doesn’t need to start I guess (hopefully my sarcasm is coming off OK). Skrtel is a given too probably, along with Enrique.

Spearing is probably the best choice for midfield to start, but Gerrard could easily start despite his groin probably screaming for help. Henderson hasn’t seen as much time as normal so he should be able to step up. Downing is a possibility also. I really wish I could say Jonjo Shelvey has earned a spot, but we have been busy relying on Adam and Henderson instead of giving Shelvey some kind of chance. Don’t get me wrong, I am a huge Henderson fan-boy, but he hasn’t been performing all too well recently. Adam is also possibly out with injury (rumor is it could be season ending).

Suarez will start, probably alongside Carroll. Simple as that. They will team up to score one goal, and blow the lead or whatever to Wigan Athletic again and not earn points, just like normal.

I don’t know if it’s my mood right now, the fact it’s raining or me being pessimistic, but this seems a terribly depressing preview.

How can Liverpool win?

I really don’t have many things to point out anymore. The defense is going to have to be solid and not have so many huge lapses in concentration over such a short amount of time.

The midfield is going to have to control the match and possession no matter who is on the pitch. They also have to support the attack because Suarez cannot do it on his own.

Carroll and Suarez are generally a pretty good pair. So hopefully we’ll see some more goals tomorrow. This is where my optimism is sadly enough.

Q.P.R. vs. Liverpool

Liverpool come off a derby and FA Cup quarter final win and get to play QPR. QPR are sitting in 18th place, one point behind Bolton and tied on goals with Wigan and Wolves. QPR has had terrible form  recently after the sacking of Neil Warnock. It’s a match where Liverpool could easily pick up the three points, but don’t want to get too excited as Liverpool has been terribly poor against lower-table opposition.

Who will start for Liverpool?

Reina
Kelly–Carragher–Skrtel–Enrique
Spearing–Gerrard
Henderson–Downing
Suarez–Carroll

Reina in goal, just like always. Johnson is confirmed out so Kelly will start. Skrtel is a given and will probably be alongside Carragher, but possible Coates. Enrique should start at left back. The defense is Liverpool’s strongest aspect, but QPR’s attack is no pushover. Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Cisse and Zamora will pose a threat to Liverpool.

The midfield is again tough to decide. Gerrard and Spearing should get a start. The question is on Liverpool to decide if they want a third midfielder in Henderson or Charlie Adam. If so, then the attack will have to alter. If Henderson plays, he fits on the right while Adam just fits into the middle.

Suarez will automatically start. Carroll could see the start, but then so could Kuyt and Downing. My pick is probably Downing because of his FA quarterfinal goal and his recent improved form. Bellamy probably won’t see game time, but possibly a youth player could fit in onto the bench.

How can Liverpool win?

Liverpool are going to have to find a way to get the ball into the net. They have every chance to do so, but they will have to execute it. Liverpool are also going to have to contain QPR’s attack along with Joey Barton who is a fiery man with a fiery personality who isn’t afraid of anyone.

Liverpool 2-1 Stoke City. The Calls of Wembley Await.

Liverpool triumph over the gosh darn pesky Stoke City for the second time in their fourth meeting on the year.

The biggest shock in the line up is the inclusion of Maxi. Maxi started on the left wing, opposite of Downing with only Gerrard and Spearing in midfield.

The match started out in typical Stoke fashion, with Liverpool unable to unlock the cryptic vault of Stoke’s defense and Stoke attempting football’s version of bumper cars and knocking players all over the place.

The first chance came in the 23′ and it was between the Argentine and the Uruguayan. The quick 1-2 left Suarez open on the edge of the area and he made no mistake in his finish by pelting it to Thomas Sorensen’s left side and down so the all-star keeper (only against Liverpool) was unable to make a stop.

Liverpool’s excitement ended quickly on a series of corners by Stoke. Stoke after known for their toughness on set pieces,  so it was only a matter of time. On the third corner (wrongfully awarded), Peter Crouch hopped off his stilts and headed passed Reina who was left helpless because of obstruction and Carroll’s poor marking on Crouch.

The rest of the half went in typical Liverpool vs. Stoke fashion. Liverpool were bland and Stoke were Stoke.

The beginning of the second half started different. Gerrard tested the keeper quickly and Suarez almost obtained the lead through a nicely taken set piece by Downing.

Liverpool finally got their break-away goal in the 57′. Downing dribbled in from the right, placed a pass to Gerrard, who either fumbled the ball behind him, or meant to drop it back to Downing. Downing got the “pass” anyways and took one dribble to his left and fired low and hard, his second goal in the FA Cup and second for Liverpool in competitive matches.

The positives that were taken out of the match have to be Adam not starting for two straight matches (look how well we did), continued momentum after Everton, the defeat of Stoke again, and the “easier” draw against either Everton or Sunderland in the semi-finals at Wembley.

The player on the day had to be Martin Skrtel. The defender has to be Liverpool’s run-away player of the year. He is brilliant and terrifying in the back and has led to Liverpool doing a fantastic job at defense.

 

Liverpool 3-0 Everton. Consistency?

Liverpool really can’t play consistently. Where to point fingers though? This has to be seen as some kind of problem if you look at it. Sunderland’s performance was pitiful, a disgrace for everyone involved. We’re sitting 7th in the standings and we could have been passed by Everton. So we play Everton, no big deal.

After our poor performance at the Stadium of Light over the weekend, no one knew what kind of performance Liverpool was going to give. They gave a damn good performance also. Steven Gerrard got a hat-trick and Luis Suarez assisted two of his shots.

The match started with play going in Liverpool’s favor. Shortly after though, Everton started to get into the run of things with their poorly chosen line-up. Liverpool broke on a counter what ended up at Martin Kelly’s feet. His shot was saved by the outstanding Tim Howard. Everton tried to clear, but it only made it as far as Gerrard who left-footed it over everyone and into the back of the net.

Kelly proved again why our right backs are actually our best forwards as he thundered into the box only to put his effort inches wide.

The restart brought even more thunder to Liverpool. Jordan Henderson played a through ball to Suarez who brought the ball to the base line, then cut back where is dribble was placed right into Gerrard’s path. He didn’t miss. 2-0 Liverpool in the 51′.

Going into stoppage time, Liverpool were comfortably in the lead and the match was over. This didn’t stop the Suarez and Gerrard combo. Suarez and Gerrard brought the ball down the pitch where Suarez had space for a shot, but gave it to Gerrard who only had to make contact as he was wide open in front of the goal.

The living legend – Steven Gerrard – earned a hat-trick in the biggest city derby in the world. If the Carling Cup trophy didn’t get the flame lit under their butts, then hopefully this does. Derby’s are never easy.

 

Liverpool vs. Everton. Thank God the weekend is over already.

Liverpool come off a terribly uninspiring performance that I wasn’t able to cover due to my life. So sorry about that, you really didn’t miss much. Charlie Adam started and sucked, that’s about all that needs to be said. We lost.

Onto tomorrow though. Liverpool host Everton in the second Merseyside derby of the year. Liverpool won the first with Jack Rodwell being controversially sent off for his tackle on Luis Suarez. They want redemption.

Their form is substantially better than our two league wins since the year started and David Moyes’ side will be looking for their first win at Anfield since Moyes took over.  Also on the line is the 7th position Liverpool currently hold. If Everton win, they pass Liverpool by one point. That is all that separates us from the rebels on the Goodison Park side of Liverpool.

If Liverpool win they will be two points behind Newcastle for the sixth spot. With fourth everything but mathematically impossible, Liverpool don’t have much else to shoot for. There are problems though, like Everton finishing about Liverpool, or even worse, Papa Woy’s West Brom Side finishing above us in the table.

Who will start for Liverpool?

Reina
Johnson–Carragher–Skrtel–Enrique
Henderson–Adam–Gerrard
Carroll–Suarez–Bellamy

Reina will be in goal, we know that much. The back line is questionable as always since Daniel Agger is officially out. Glen Johnson could take back his right back spot, but Martin Kelly could keep it. Martin Skrtel will be in the center of defense, probably paired with Jamie Carragher since it’s a derby. Jose Enrique will start at left back unless Kelly starts, then Johnson could start at left back.

The midfield is tough to guess. Jordan Henderson will most likely get a start. If Stephen Gerrard is fully fit, he will start, no questions asked. Charlie Adam could get included if we’re that unlucky. His performances lately have been atrocious and Kenny Dalglish keeps picking him for some reason. I would much rather see Stewart Downing

More questions in attack. Suarez will get a start, but who starts alongside him? Andy Carroll? Craig Bellamy? Dirk Kuyt. It’s hard to tell. Kuyt has been getting quite a bit of runs in the squad but hasn’t performed as well as he was when we bet Manchester United in the FA Cup.

How can Liverpool win?

Do everything the opposite way they did against Sunderland, in other words don’t suck. Put shots on target, pass the ball, don’t play like shit, the unusual as of late. This is a really big match for Liverpool’s season, even if it’s just for bragging rights. I’m hoping they actually come out to play, that’s the biggest thing they didn’t do against Sunderland.

Lets go through them again.

1. Don’t suck.
2. Get shots on target.
3. Don’t play Charlie Adam.
4. Don’t suck.

Liverpool 1-2 Arsenal. Cue End of the World.

Liverpool completely destroy their season as they completely dominate play but let in two goals to Robin van Persie. The first one came completely against play and came from poor defense by Jamie Carragher. But you know, life goes on.

Liverpool completely dominated possession and play through the first half. Jordan Henderson and Luis Suarez looked comfortable in possession in attack. Suarez had individual moments of brilliance while Suarez, Dirk Kuyt and Steward Downing all looked strong. It was a good day for Liverpool players, but van Persie’s individual brilliance thwarted Liverpool after Liverpool’s finishing was as clinical as a 7 seven year old trying to diagnose AID’s.

Liverpool could only score a goal through Henderson’s cross that was comically put into the back of the net. This was after Kuyt missed a penalty, then missed a sitter of a rebound after some brilliance by the Gunner’s keeper. The finishing really was a mess to behold after being confident with Kuyt’s finishing in big games.

The midfield was perhaps one of the strongest parts of Liverpool’s play. They dominated possession with, on paper, worse players in Henderson, Charlie Adam and Jay Spearing. The attack was strong, just lacked the finishing that has lacked all season. Two post hits and an excellent goalkeeper thwarted all of Liverpool’s chancing, but it was really poor finishing all around.

The defense was suspect at times, but was solid except for a couple lapses in marking and concentration that led to van Persie’s two goals. Both of them were due to Carragher’s poor marking on the Dutchman, but van Persie’s second is hard to really say anything bad about other than “O shit, we just lost.” Enrique was solid against Theo Walcott and Martin Kelly kept his side on check.

Overall, it was a really disappointing finish yes, but how can anyone call for Dalglish’s head and calling his project a complete failure? If I remember correctly, this is the squad that completely outplayed Arsenal both times, brought the club its first trophy in six years and to the ending stages of the FA Cup. The league position is pathetic, but finishing comes down to the players, and their “mediocrity” has actually unlocked man teams and destroyed some teams, just not on the score sheet. Despite that being the only place it counts, they’ve been excellent in many ways, and I think time will being the answer to the problems that we’ve all faced.

But that’s all I have for now.

Liverpool vs. Arsenal. A turn-around point?

Liverpool come off a 120 minute cup win and find out about two injuries. Daniel Agger fractured a rib and is expected to be out “a couple weeks.” We’re also currently waiting for information on the skipper Steven Gerrard. He left the England v. Holland match in the 32′ after pulling up with an injury. The latest say he could play since Kenny Dalglish doesn’t know the seriousness of it.

But to be happy…

Arsenal come to Anfield after being defeated at the Emirates earlier this year. Liverpool have a chance to come within four points with a game in hand if they win. If Arsenal win, then Liverpool’s 4th place chances are, all but mathematically, impossible. Arsenal are riding on a 5-2 victory against Tottenham and Liverpool are coming off of a cup victory. Who will win? Only time will tell. Liverpool could show up to play against a top four team, but it’s also at Anfield where Liverpool have struggled to make draws into wins.

Who will start for Liverpool? 

Reina
Johnson–Carragher–Skrtel–Enrique
Henderson–Adam
Kuyt–Downing
Carroll–Suarez

In a difficult line-up to pick, Pepe Reina is the easiest choice, along with Glen Johnson, Martin Skrtel and Jose Enrique. Jamie Carragher will probably slide into Agger’s spot, but possibly Martin Kelly or Sebastian Coates (don’t count on it). The defense is going to need to be strong as Robin Van Persie is a persistent threat, along with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho and Theo Walcott who all pose a threat. Carragher is going to have to step it up if he wants to perform well.

The midfield will probably line up with two in the middle without Gerrard. I want them to play with three and include Wee Jay Spearing, but don’t think it will happen. The midfield is going to have to be tidy in possession as Arsenal have a strong midfield with Alex Song. The midfield battle is going to be important to who wins the match.

Liverpool’s attack is also unpredictable. Luis Suarez should get a start, no questions asked. Andy Carroll will probably line up beside him. Stewart Downing will probably be on one side while Dirk Kuyt or Jordan Henderson on the other. Craig Bellamy played in the cup final and for Wales earlier this week, so I don’t think he will be getting a start here again.

How can Liverpool win?

Liverpool have to stop Van Persie. He is the biggest threat for Arsenal and he will have to be nullified for Liverpool to win. That said, the rest of the attack for Arsenal is quite strong also, so the Reds will have to contain the rest. Liverpool should be able to create chances since Arsenals back-line is wounded. Liverpool should be able to create plenty of chances, but the question is if they finish them. With Suarez on poor form and Carroll having a poor cup final, they’re going to have to fire on all cylinders. Downing cannot be Liverpool’s biggest threat against Arsenal.